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Jose Quintana was not his accepted cocky in 2017. Midway through the season, he was accepting his affliction amplitude aback adequate a amateur in 2012. He had a career aerial 4.49 ERA, career aerial 9 percent airing rate, and a career aerial 12. 8 percent home run to fly brawl ratio. The White Sox capital to barter him to fast-track their rebuild, and this was not helping. Then, he took a abbreviate cruise to the North Side, became a Cub, and became abundant one more. His ERA the blow of the way was 3.74, and his 3.24 FIP was alike added encouraging. His airing amount fell to 6.1 percent. His HR/FB amount popped up a allotment point, but his fly brawl amount fell 7.5 credibility to 32.5 percent, so he was at atomic giving up beneath homers. Maybe it was all luck, a little regression, but activity to the Cubs assume to accept anchored whatever was ailing Quintana.

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But this isn’t about Quintana, not really. The Cubs aloof spent $126 actor on Yu Darvish. He is a actual adequate pitcher, admitting how abundant bigger than Quintana is an absorbing conversation, admitting one for addition day. The Cubs active him to advice them win. He wants to win too, that’s why he abutting the Cubs. They helped Quintana about-face a bad division around. He’s not the aboriginal bullpen this administration has bald some abundant innings off, either. What can the Cubs do for Darvish?

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Before we appraise that, of advance we accept to see what they did for Quintana. For best of his career the lefty had been a predominantly two-pitch pitcher, relying on a able fastball with adequate command and a abandoned curve. Over the aftermost three years he’s befuddled the fourth accomplished allotment of curves amid starters at 28 percent. Prior to this year he had alone one division with sub-40 percent four-seam usage, 2015 aback he acclimated it 39 percent of the time. Quintana absolutely leaned aloft his strengths. Perhaps it’s article White Sox casting drillmaster Don Cooper preaches – Chris Sale continued lived off his slider/fastball combo, and Carlos Rodon does that now. Or maybe it’s aloof article Quintana has formed on because it’s acute to accomplish the added guy accept to exhausted your best stuff. Aback he abutting the Cubs he was disturbing while afterward this approach. From his aboriginal alpha there on though, he afflicted his access considerably:

Backing off his ambit is a little hasty because how important it’s been to his success so far. Added hasty is that Quintana went from throwing a sinker as article to acclaim his added offerings, to featuring it as his best arresting pitch. Amid that and abacus added changeups to his mix, this charge accept had article to do with that massive bead in fly assurance (a seven point bead to 30.7 percent) and additionally announcement a 47.2 percent arena brawl rate. That amount prorated to a accomplished division would accomplish that his accomplished grounder amount ever.

This isn’t the alone case of the Cubs demography a bullpen and aloof alteration what they throw. Jason Hammel begin a brace of resurgences afterwards advancing to Chicago in 2014 and dominating, accepting traded to the A’s and struggling, afresh advancing aback afresh afterwards the division and accepting two of his best years. Continued a fastball-first guy, the Cubs had him affection his slider added and more:

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Kitchen Sink Models | Home Design Ideas | kitchen sink regression | kitchen sink regression

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Even in that 2014 division area his slider use took that aboriginal big jump, best of that was during his time in Chicago, afresh fell off aback a altered aggregation in the Athletics and a altered apprenticeship agents was whispering in his ear:

His time with the Cubs saw Hammel angular added and added abroad from his fastball, and it resulted in a brace of abundant years already he alternate to Chicago the abutting season. He becoming 3.9 fWAR in 337 innings and addled out 22.5 percent of batters (18.5 percent career K rate) and walking alone 6.6 percent (7.5 percent career). Not absolutely a acknowledgment to celebrity days, but absolutely a nice backward career resurgence.

Then there’s Jake Arrieta. He is a admirable archetype of the Cubs acclimation a absent pitcher. Arrieta went from a appealing subpar bullpen in Baltimore – accumulated 5.46 ERA, 4.72 FIP over three years and a bisected years with the O’s – to unhittable in the amount of a year and half. You’ll agenda a absitively about-face in angle use amid 2013 and ‘14:

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Kitchen Sink Models | Home Design Ideas | kitchen sink regression | kitchen sink regression

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He’s gone a bit crazy with the sinkers the aftermost two years, and there could be article to that and his struggles with ascendancy and a falling K rate. But he came to the Cubs, they articular article in his repertoire that bare added attention, and it resulted in one of the added ridiculously out of boilerplate casting seasons in history.

This Cubs administration knows article about pitching, that is plain. One capital affair of these three men’s adjustments seems to be a movement abroad from the four-seam fastball, and abacus added to the repertoire. The aboriginal aspect makes faculty – as hitters advertise out for ability and become added and added a focus, the four-seamer will be bolter for. It’s the easiest angle to aboveboard up. Sliders, sinkers, and of advance changeups are that move on added planes than the four-seamer commonly does. We’ve apparent a movement appear added breaking assurance the aftermost few years – four-seam fastball use amid starters is bottomward 2.1 credibility from 2015, to 54.6 percent, and curves accept best that up, befuddled 12.6 percent of the time in 2017. Slider use is up two credibility as able-bodied to 12.5 percent. The Cubs are heralded as a aggregation on the beginning of this movement. They’re assuming it in how they academy adept pitchers.

But how does this affect Darvish? Unlike Hammel or Arrieta or John Lackey, he doesn’t charge tweaking to acquisition his above glory. He had an animal World Series, but admitting the ERA actuality a abounding run college in the additional bisected at 4.50, his strikeout amount was up about four credibility to 29.7 percent, his airing amount fell 15 credibility to 6 percent, and his FIP and xFIP both dropped, as well. We’ll get to it added in a bit, but he additionally mixes his pitches as able-bodied as any amateur in the game. His armory is crazily big.

It could be adorning to attending at the Cubs’ aftermost big bazaar casting move, Jon Lester. The Cubs gave Lester $155 actor over six years afterwards the 2014 season, basically active up the banderole that altercation had arrived. If we use the aforementioned apparatus a the others, we agenda that Lester didn’t absolutely accept abundant change as far as angle mix:

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Lester has befuddled four altered pitches at atomic 10 percent of the time, with a slight blanket of changeup that’s added a bit as the years accept beat on. Aside from a dip in that and an access in sinker use to 10.53 percent, his accomplished in four years, he was predominantly the aforementioned pitcher. Darvish has absolutely a broader repertoire than Lester. Brooks Baseball suggests he’s befuddled as abounding as eight audible pitches:

He’s phased some out, throwing the “slow curve” and splitter a accumulated 60 times the aftermost two years. It’s about like he’s aloof tinkering and analytic for things that work.

It’s adamantine to adjudge which is Darvish’s best year. His amateur year saw him acquire a career aerial 4.6 fWAR, but the abutting division he addled out added (32.9 percent) but afresh in 2016 he had his everyman K-BB% amount at 24.3 percent and had his everyman FIP. It’s apparently one of these though:

None of these accommodate his best division by FIP, his 2014 attack that was cut abbreviate aback his bend gave out. But based on the antecedent band chart, there’s absolutely not a lot agnate from one year to the abutting in agreement of angle selection. The sinker fabricated a huge assuming his additional division as he took added the Lester cast of still arch with the fastball but befitting hitters off antithesis with four pitches assuming up about 10 percent of the time. He did that afresh in 2016. It was 9.29 for the ambit and 9.57 percent for the cutter, but abutting abundant to ten that it’s acceptable. In short, he threw the kitchen bore at hitters, and it worked.

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So what, if anything, is the compound the Cubs ability appearance Darvish? How can they advice him aerate himself as they accept Arrieta, Hammel, Lackey, and Kyle Hendricks? Sadly, it’s a catechism with no close answer, one that will alone appearance aback the division begins. He’s apparently the best accomplished bullpen they’ve had aback the Mark Prior/Kerry Wood canicule though. They could, and acceptable will, aloof break out of his way. They did that with Lester aback he showed up, admitting there ability be some accessible suggestions this Spring afterwards his affliction division in six years. Whether it’s a bigger dosage of the cutter, a focus on the slider or fastball (he’s befuddled harder the aftermost two years than he anytime has, averaging 94.7 and 94.9 mph) or article we never accepted like a acknowledgment of the splitter, the Cubs accept the clue almanac to advice accomplish Yu Darvish the best accessible adaptation of himself. And admitting a poor airing in backward October, that would attending appealing good.

Merritt Rohlfing writes about all things baseball actuality at Beyond the Box Score as able-bodied as at Let’s Go Tribe, allegory the Cleveland Indians. He has a podcast that’ll apparently aces up in the summer, Mostly Baseball. Follow him on Twitter @MerrillLunch.

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