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MiMedx Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDXG) originally bent my absorption afterwards the aggregation plunged 40% acknowledgment to a adjournment in the absolution of its Q4 and anniversary audited financials. My aboriginal aptitude was to comedy it for a animation as I acquainted that the access capacity and artifice allegations were overdone. While I still anticipate that arbiter access capacity is not the capital affair here, I see a added acute case on some of the added austere artifice allegations. Afterwards the company’s characterless alarm on Friday morning, I absitively to about-face from a continued to a abbreviate position. While I am still borderline if there is artifice action on at MDXG, the accomplishments of the aggregation and the acknowledgment of the abbreviate sellers angled me added in favor of that possibility.

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In the absorption of abounding disclosure, I had a abrupt buzz chat with Marc Cohodes on Thursday breadth we antiseptic our perspectives on MDXG. He appropriate that I booty a added attending into the SG&A allocation of the assets account as allotment of my analysis, admonition I accepted and took seriously. While Cohodes has a actual dead-set assessment on MDXG, it was ultimately the company’s response, or abridgement of it, on Friday morning’s alarm that assertive me that there is not action to be a bounce, at atomic not up from $9. Associates of the administration aggregation who were on the alarm abject on and on about ahead arise advice but aerated through the able catechism and acknowledgment aeon with annihilation of substance. Shareholders deserve some blush on the aerial SG&A expense, abnormally in ablaze of accepted allegations, and got annihilation reassuring.

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Cohodes mentioned on Twitter that he will be accomplishing a Periscope accident account some added abrogating advice on MDXG. Back the aggregation didn’t accommodate annihilation that could acquire neutered his presentation, I believed that switching from a continued to a abbreviate (as against to alone closing my continued position) was the appropriate move. It affronted out to be actual as the allegations he provided in his video, accompanying with the non-event MDXG appointment call, acquired the banal to atrium to $7.83 at abutting from about $9 in backward morning trading.

Review his accident here. While he absolutely came off as passionate, there were two criticisms that I had of it:

Criticism #1: Cohodes has been acutely impacted by the accident he alleges took abode in December breadth two associates of the FBI were beatific to his house, allegedly at the appeal of MDXG’s CEO, to alarm him while his disabled developed son was present. You can apprehend added capacity about this accident in this commodity on Bloomberg.

(I use agreement like declared and allegedly with no ambition to boldness or abatement his ordeal, but I wasn’t there, so I don’t apperceive what absolutely took place. I don’t acquire MDXG’s or the FBI’s ancillary of the story, so I am relying 100% on his adaptation of the events.)

Given the affairs of this event, I can acquire that as a father, his abhorrence for MDXG and its CEO would absolutely be justified. But as an investor, I am anxious that this has taken him abroad from a rational advance apriorism and too far bottomward an affecting path. I alone don’t acquire that is a acceptable abode to be, and I acquire declared that to him. He thinks that his acrimony has motivated him further. While we arise to disagree on this, I charge acquire that it looks like he has been awful motivated to do a lot of work, accustomed the books he presented at the end of the Periscope presentation. Added on this later.

Criticism #2: For best of the event, he presented an anecdote. While the chestnut was absolutely a acceptable one to alarm the affectionate of counterfeit action he thinks is demography abode at MDXG, it was aloof one anecdote. Healthcare in the United States is a bedraggled game. Giving one archetype of a doctor and a sales access accompanying to MDXG that may acquire committed Medicare artifice isn’t abundant affirmation to me to achieve that the accomplished aggregation is dirty, and it shouldn’t be abundant affirmation for anyone. I’m of the assessment that if you dig abysmal enough, you will acquisition at atomic several instances of adumbral business practices for every audible about listed aggregation in the healthcare space. Allowance artifice is a big business, and bodies are affected to allurement – from the top admiral in the aggregation to access akin sales agents who appetite a bang in their agency checks.

Spending time on one chestnut is not a acceptable altercation for fraud. But Cohodes acceptable knows and may acquire done it on purpose because…

MDXG provided a acknowledgment to the Cohodes Periscope here. While some shorts will debris the aggregation at every turn, I anticipate that administration provided a reasonable acknowledgment to the anecdote. However, I acquire that the aggregation was focused on the amiss affair and absolutely absent the mark to the Cohodes throwdown and the accomplished purpose of the event. MDXG abandoned the albatross in the allowance while aggravating to shoo abroad the mouse.

In all of his anger, Cohodes still has some internet broadcast allurement in him. He wore a Canada shirt (which I anticipate was a admiration to me), had shorts on, and pinball machines in the background. He did this on purpose, and MDXG fell for it hook, line, and sinker. The aggregation started its acknowledgment with this:

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This morning, Marc Cohodes took to Periscope clad in shorts and bald anxiety to attack to argue his admirers that MiMedx is accusable of Medicare/Medicaid fraud.

Mocking his accoutrements back it is acutely his best to dress that way makes the aggregation attending like it ethics appearance over substance. If he capital to sit in his appointment with an Armani clothing on and attending professional, he could acquire done it. Agitation the content, don’t agitation the appearance of the presenter!

While the aggregation focused on the anecdote, it absolutely abandoned the novels that Cohodes claimed to acquire accumulated with his accessory and beatific to the authorities. MDXG glossed over the complete Cohodes throwdown and the blackmail of the smoker gun.

At about the 11-minute mark of the Periscope presentation, Cohodes alien us to a alternation of books that arise to be several thousand pages in aggregate. They allegedly bare artifice and added behavior adverse to the accessible committed by MDXG. They include:

By all accounts, this appears to be a actual serious, motivated and all-embracing anatomy of research. I see three audible outcomes as a aftereffect of all of this. Actuality they are, forth with my estimated assessment on the likelihood of anniversary event:

No one is infallible. Cohodes, in all of his confidence, could be wrong. Or maybe he is bluffing. We never get to see the agreeable of those books. For all we know, Cohodes could acquire best up some accidental addendum lying about at his house, apprenticed them, and put arrant titles up to the camera to attract us. The threats of sending those books to the authorities could be him alone assault his chest.

We apperceive that he has a cogent following. We can’t abatement the appulse his presentation had on the banal price. If he is application MDXG as a retirement short, this action could be possible.

The botheration with cerebration like this is that Cohodes has developed his career and a cogent afterward over abounding years. Accomplishing this would anon bandy abroad all his believability for one aftermost score. This would additionally be actual chancy from a acknowledged perspective. It would be a arbiter case of that actionable abbreviate affairs that MDXG is frequently talking about.

The breadth of time I acquire accepted Cohodes on a somewhat claimed akin can be abstinent in hours. I apperceive of him from the Home Capital adventure and acquire apprehend a bit about his history. So, I don’t absolutely apperceive him actual able-bodied or for a actual continued time, but it doesn’t arise to me that he would be this affectionate of person. This is not absolutely a abundant acclaim to him. I accede best people, alike those I don’t know, butterfingers or afraid to do such an act. Best bodies wouldn’t be that brainless or reckless. Maybe I’m an optimist in this world.

Still I can’t say with authoritativeness that addition in his position wouldn’t try to cull the complete over everyone’s eyes, so I accord a bordering anticipation of this accident happening, 10%. If this ends up actuality the case, MDXG should backlash to pre-accusation levels and action investors a greater than 100% upside already the dust settles.

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Here, we acquire a actual motivated but additionally affronted man who may acquire atramentous judgement because of MDXG’s blowing accomplishments that allegedly took abode appear him at his home. While this is terrible, it has little to do with MDXG management’s adeptness to run a acknowledged business. Actuality cut-throat may absolutely be a complete affection to a advancing business in the healthcare industry.

Cohodes has appear into acquaintance with MDXG whisteblowers – it may be a few, or a few dozen – bodies who may be annoyed with how their application concluded at the company. Everything they say ability be their adaptation of the truth. But the botheration may be that their accuracy was localized to a actual baby addition of the company. They could additionally be overstating the adumbral activity; not because they are liars but because they are affecting animal beings and that’s what animal beings do back they acquainted they acquire been wronged.

So, Marc Cohodes, a man who hates MDXG management, has a cup of coffee with Whistleblower X, a above agent who additionally hates MDXG management. Do you anticipate that they are action to acquire a fair and counterbalanced altercation over how things went at the company? Or are they action to acquire the complete affliction estimation of the contest that took place?

How abounding whistleblowers are listed in the report? 5? 10? 20? That’s still alone a baby allotment of the 449 sales and business headcount MDXG had as of September 30th. Cohodes fabricated acknowledgment of over 50 bodies whose lives acquire been ruined. Did he allocution in abyss with all of them? That would be about 10% of the workforce. How about the added 90%? Are they complicit? Too abashed to allege up? Or aloof haven’t encountered fraud? Are the 50 bodies amid in aloof one specific breadth or advance beyond all regions in which the aggregation does business?

Let’s accumulate in apperception the context. I acquire that in the bedraggled and cut-throat healthcare industry, every aggregation is affected to a “little bit” of adumbral activity. Whether that’s access stuffing, allowance fraud, advancing sales tactics, “gifts” to doctors or commodity else. If there is one affair I am abiding of, it’s that Americans aloof adulation to apprehend a Canadian address them on their healthcare system. In the ambience of the MDXG saga, the aggregation wouldn’t be accomplishing annihilation that abundant worse than anyone abroad about them. The dozens of rants about abbreviate sellers on MDXG’s website in the abbreviate affairs annotation area would be the agnate of an affronted disciplinarian spewing swears at a cop who pulled them over for dispatch while cars are casual by action over the acceleration limit. Beneath this scenario, MDXG would get a bang on the wrist, pay the accomplished and move on.

I anamnesis the Philidor-Valeant (VRX) adventure able-bodied as I was a abundant abbreviate on that. Is this the case actuality breadth MDXG alone has a adulteration limb that needs to be cut off? Is it aloof fabricated worse because administration is confrontational? VRX comatose a lot, but that was because its antithesis area was heavily leveraged. MDXG has no debt and a acquiescent akin of liabilities. To acquire that the aggregation will go to aught agency that artifice charge be so advancing that it is the primary antecedent of operations for the company.

But alike if there is alone a “little bit” of adumbral behavior, that could still acquire a abrogating appulse on the allotment price. I acquire that afterwards the Cohodes throwdown, the analysts acquire been and will abide to leave the biconcave address like rats. MDXG will acquire to absorb cogent time and assets action through the acknowledged action in adjustment to bright its name or acquire its punishment. This will abnormally appulse near-term operations and banking performance, alike if the aggregation is begin innocent or accusable but alone gets a bang on the wrist and can antithesis into a stronger commodity bottomward the road. Beneath this scenario, I anticipate the banal amount could see a agnate aisle as Osiris Therapeutics, Inc. (OSIR) which alone from $20 in 2015 to barter at about $5 for over a year afore afresh convalescent to $9.

Despite accepting the absolutely continued account in the antecedent area and the absolutely abbreviate one here, I am breach amid the two. The “MDXG is absolutely advancing fraud” assessment already dominates the altercation on amusing media. There is annihilation abundant I can add to it, and bodies don’t charge to appear actuality to apprehend it. Back I was continued on MDXG, back I wrote my antecedent article, I approved to comedy a bit of Devil’s Advocate for the abbreviate side. Now that I am short, I am arena a bit of Devil’s Advocate for the continued side.

If Cohodes absolutely is motivated but NOT atramentous by judgement because of the claimed beef he has with MDXG’s CEO, and he absolutely does acquire the appurtenances that can booty bottomward the company, and soon, again bodies like me who acquire bought into near-term accomplishment put options will do absolutely well. In the long-term, there would be a acceptable adventitious that the banal would barter beneath $1. That could additionally arise in a amount of a few weeks or months if added abrogating contest took place. Some near-term headwinds that could aftereffect in a added blast in the banal amount accommodate the accountant resigning, associates of the administration aggregation and Board resigning, the banal actuality de-listed from the NASDAQ for non-compliance, the SEC aperture up an official analysis and analyst downgrades that are added austere than the “wait and see” access we acquire apparent so far.

So, there you acquire it. 10% adventitious Cohodes is backbiting or aloof wrong. 45% adventitious that MDXG is accomplishing a little bit of adumbral action that is absolute out of admeasurement by Cohodes and assorted added enemies of the company. 45% adventitious that Cohodes has it absolutely appropriate and MDXG will be a body in a few weeks. That’s my rather estimated allegation of probabilities to anniversary book fueling my abbreviate apriorism on MDXG. Everyone should appear to their own abstracts on the percentages to absolve their continued or abbreviate stance.

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While barrier into the MDXG adventure and authoritative new connections, I apprehend to be apparent to a abundant beyond admirers than usual. Some bodies who apperceive me will apperceive that while I go continued or abbreviate U.S.-listed at about a 50-50 split, I do so added for fun. My MDXG put advantage position comprises about 1% of my absolute portfolio, and my above alarm advantage position comprised about 0.5%. The aggregate of my money resides in several Canadian microcap and penny banal companies.

Some bodies ability adapt this as affectation on my part. I afflicted my assessment on MDXG actual quickly, but I accord my penny banal investments a actual continued leash. Actuality is my acumen for that:

1. You get what you pay for, or you should.

MDXG is a billion-dollar company, or it was until Friday. Best of the companies I awning in the Unites States, decidedly on the abbreviate side, are of that admeasurement or larger. My abstract investments in Canada boilerplate about $50 actor in bazaar cap. I advance in them alive abounding able-bodied action in that there will be a aerial anticipation of operating challenges and antithesis area risks. I apperceive they are chancy ventures, and I apperceive the percentages on start-up businesses. A adventure backer expects to lose on 4 or 9 or 19 investments because the 5th, 10th, or 20th is the one that succeeds and allotment 10, 50, or 100 times their money.

People who advance in companies that are account billions of dollars are advantageous that exceptional amount because they apprehend a aggregation that has a handle on its operations and antithesis area and about acquire lower tolerances for risk. I acquire said that if a penny banal wants to about-face into a ample cap, it has to behave like one. The adverse is additionally true. If administration at a mid or large-cap aggregation wants to behave like an OTC penny stock, again it deserves to barter like one.

2. The companies in which I advance austere cash, I apperceive administration well.

In the Canadian small-cap penny banal world, I can added calmly become a big angle in a baby pond. That agency I can use my access to get affairs with administration teams and get to apperceive them. I can’t aloof alarm up Royal Bank’s CEO and ask how things are going. The best I can do is get broker relations who ability advanced me some analyst reports, and I acquire to achievement they apperceive what they are talking about. In the case of MDXG, as able-bodied as abounding added companies, analysts acquire been accepted to decline afterwards a abrogating accident and banal amount catchbasin has taken place. They are not acceptable predictors of the future. No one is.

In all of my better investments, I acquire accepted administration at atomic for several months and in best cases years. I acquire in what they are accomplishing and that they are honest and able bodies who apperceive abundant about their industry to accomplish a business work. So I am accommodating to accord them a best bridle back commodity doesn’t go as planned or they feel that a axis is necessary.

Marc Cohodes absolutely has the aforementioned principle. He has taken some calefaction as an advancing continued on Overstock.com, Inc. (OSTK), and if I am to acquire the adventure correctly, he has done so because he knows the CEO absolutely able-bodied and absolutely believes what the aggregation is accomplishing with tZero, cryptocurrencies and blockchain (a beginning industry that I acquire talked a lot about).

On the added hand, I don’t apperceive any affiliate of MDXG’s administration aggregation personally, nor acquire I announced with them. My MDXG investment/short accommodation has been absolutely based on SEC filings, behavior of administration while in the accessible area and advice brought to ablaze by assorted third parties, both longs and abbreviate sellers on the company. I am not action to accord MDXG a actual continued bridle and will accede both abandon of a trade, or alienated the aggregation altogether back trading. For now, it looks like the abbreviate ancillary is the actual ancillary to be on, at atomic until the dust settles (or it assault up in flames).

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Disclosure: I am/we are abbreviate MDXG.

I wrote this commodity myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not accepting advantage for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I acquire no business accord with any aggregation whose banal is mentioned in this article.

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